‘Transactional’ but pivotal: how Xi-Trump talks could redefine US-China fault lines - South China Morning Post

Frans-Paul van der Putten, an independent China expert based in the Netherlands, noted the subtle policy shift on China under Trump. "It has probably become easier for China to understand the overall direction of US foreign policy," he said. "Despite Trump's changeable behaviour, the basics of US foreign policy during his second presidency are more coherent and focused than when he was president for the first time." He said while Trump was unpredictable, he was "very likely to keep coming back to the US-China relationship as a key issue during his presidency".

According to van der Putten, summits between the two leaders were crucial since "exchanges between the two governments below the leadership level are limited, and often linked to upcoming meetings between Xi and Trump". He said that while the summit might ease tensions – and extend the trade truce – much depended on structural rivalry and economic interdependence. "The US depends on China's supply of rare earths, while China is faced with a strong military presence of the US in East Asia and on the world's seas," he said.

Iran is expected to feature prominently during the summit, with Trump set to press Xi on Beijing's purchases of Iranian oil and potential weapons-related support, according to US officials. Taiwan – which Beijing regards as "the very core of China's core interests" – remains the most sensitive issue. There has been speculation that a key goal for Beijing this week is to push Washington to change its position on Taiwan – that it could be seeking US restraint on arms sales and high-level visits to the island and on rhetoric that could embolden independence forces. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters last week that Taiwan would be discussed by Trump and Xi. But a senior US official said in a briefing on Sunday that there had been no change in US policy on Taiwan. 

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Van der Putten said Trump may prefer to keep cross-strait relations unchanged "at least for as long as he is in office". "Xi may want assurance that the US under Trump will do nothing to encourage pro-independence sentiments or activities in Taiwan, and ideally that it signals that Taiwanese independence is not an option under any circumstance," he said. On US arms sales, he said there could be a trade-off between increased Chinese purchases of American civilian aircraft and reduced weapons exports to Taiwan. "Trump needs China's help to find a way out with the US-Iran conflict, and some of the weapons that Taiwan needs – such as air defence missiles – are currently in short supply as they are urgently needed also by the US military," he said. "China could agree to buy more American goods, such as airplanes, to compensate for fewer US exports of weapons to Taiwan," he said. "However, it seems unlikely that the US will substantially reduce arms exports to the island."

Article by Shi Jiangtao and Kandy Wong. Complete article available on the site of SCMP.