How Will the Trump Presidency Change EU-China Relations?

The European Union has no alternative but to build up its military and economic power as much and as fast as possible. European countries have long benefited from the United States' leading in Europe's defense and in global governance. This favorable condition is rapidly disappearing as the U.S. redefines its international role. The EU now needs to strengthen its ability to defend itself against Russia while decreasing its dependence on the U.S. This it cannot do without China.

The EU has entered a precarious phase of geopolitical adjustment. For now, it is highly vulnerable to a sudden withdrawal of military support from the United States or of access to the U.S. market, financial system, and technology. As the U.S. tends to regard China as a rival in a zero-sum contest for global supremacy, it may try to use its leverage over the EU to diminish European technological and economic exchanges with China. So whereas the EU needs such exchanges with China in order to achieve greater autonomy in geopolitical affairs, it has limited room to improve relations with China as long as it does not have greater autonomy.

U.S. pressure is by no means the only obstacle for improved EU-China relations. The EU has major concerns about China, such as the country's economic policies and its strategic partnership with Russia. On the Chinese side, significant concerns include the EU's program of "de-risking" its economic relations with China, and Europe's strategic partnership with the U.S. Moreover, the possibility of a future China-U.S. war casts a shadow over EU-China relations today. Such a war could result in the EU and China being adversaries in a major conflict, which impacts how they assess their current ties and dependencies.

The EU has limited space to improve relations with China, and yet it must act. It should not change its main existing China policies, including economic de-risking and pressuring China to refrain from increasing support for Russia's war in Ukraine. What Europe needs in particular is access to Chinese technology and the Chinese market, and to work with China and other major countries, such as Japan and India, to preserve at least some basic functions of the global governance system. It should also improve mutual investment ties with China. As a follow-up to the never ratified 2020 Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), the EU needs an arrangement with China to secure its access to Chinese technology via Chinese investments in Europe and European investments in China. And finally, the EU needs to engage with the U.S. on how Europe can preserve its ties with China without endangering the U.S.-China balance of power in Asia. China cannot replace the U.S. as Europe's primary strategic partner, but as the EU is adjusting to a new geopolitical context it cannot afford to lose China as an economic and technology partner.

Contribution by Frans-Paul van der Putten to a ChinaFile conversation edited by Jeremy Goldkorn and Susan Jakes. Click here to go to the conversation.